Homebuyers Benefit From More Purchasing Power

Homebuyers Benefit From More Purchasing Power

 

1. Introduction of 30-Year Amortizations for Insured Mortgages

One of the most significant shifts this year is the introduction of 30-year amortizations for insured mortgages. This extension allows certain buyers to spread out their mortgage payments over 30 years instead of the previous 25-year maximum, increasing purchasing power. The 30 year option is in effect for all buyers purchasing new construction with less than 20% downpayment.  Effective December 15th, any first time buyers purchasing any home with an insured mortgage can benefit from the 30 year amortization.  This move aims to help Canadians qualify for larger loans while keeping their monthly payments more manageable, especially amid rising home prices and interest rates. These changes are designed to address affordability challenges. Homebuyers benefit from more purchasing power. Here’s a quick breakdown of the key changes: Homebuyers Benefit From More Purchasing Power and Homeowners Benefit From New Policies

For Insured Mortgage guidelines a first-time homebuyer must meet the following criteria:

-someone who has not owned a home in the past four years. This includes individuals who have never purchased a property or those who previously owned a home but have not done so within the last four years.

-Note: only one applicant needs to be a first time buyer to access the 30 year amortization

To qualify for certain first-time homebuyer programs, such as withdrawing from RRSP’s under the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP), the individual must plan to live in the home as their primary residence.

2. Changes Insured Mortgage limit

Effective December 15, 2024 insured mortgages will be available up to a maximum purchase price of $1,500,000.00 ($1,499,999.99 to be exact). This is an increase from the previous limit of $1,000,000.00.  This will allow all buyers to have the option of purchasing with the minimum down payment, instead of requiring 20% on the purchase price. Minimum down payment for insured mortgages are 5% of the first $500,000 and 10% on the balance. For example, if you were buying for $1,500,000 before December 15th, the minimum down payment would be 20% of the purchase price, or $300,000. After December 15th you can buy with $125,000 down.

3. Changes to Home Buyers Plan  (RRSP)

Eligible first time home buyers can withdraw from their RRSP for a home purchase up to $60,000 (increased from $40,000). The money must be repaid to their RRSP over a 15 year period, (after a 5 year grace period) or else claimed as taxable income.

4. Property Transfer Tax Exemptions for First Time Buyers

Eligible first time buyers can purchase new construction without Property Transfer Tax up to $1,100,000.

On resale properties, buyers can enjoy full exemption up to $500,000 and a new partial exemption on houses priced between $500,000-$835,000.

5. Cancellation of First-Time Homebuyer Incentives

The federal government ended their First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI) effective March 2024. There were not enough Canadians taking part in the program to make it worthwhile to continue to offer.

6. Stress Test – Renewals/Transfers

As of November 21, 2024, mortgage renewals can be transferred to a different lender without the stress test being applied. This means borrowers qualify at the contract rate instead of 2.0% above. Giving more options at renewal time.

7. Canada’s Secondary Suite Loan Program expands to $80,000 loans with 2% over 15 years

Starting January 15, 2025, the Canada Secondary Suite Loan Program will double the loan limit from $40,000 to $80,000, making it easier for homeowners to finance the creation of rental units on their property, such as basement suites or laneway homes.

Conclusion

The Canadian mortgage market in 2024 is marked by a combination of flexibility and tightening measures. While homebuyers benefit from more purchasing power through 30-year amortizations and revised stress test rules (when renewing), home owners benefit from new policies. These adjustments are reshaping the housing landscape and giving Canadians more options as they navigate a complex and evolving market.

Do you have a renewal coming up or want to see what these changes can mean for you? Give your Broker a call and we can answer any questions you may have.

 

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Make the Most of Your Mortgage Renewal

Make the Most of Your Mortgage Renewal

 

 

As your mortgage renewal date approaches, our team at Mid Island Mortgage wants to help you make the most of this opportunity. With many Canadians renewing their mortgages in 2025, this renewal season comes with some unique advantages, thanks to recent policy changes. Here’s why a renewal could be more beneficial than you think:

What’s New for Renewals?

Starting November 1st, the Federal Government of Canada has relaxed qualification rules for uninsured mortgage transfers. If you’re switching lenders without increasing your mortgage amount or extending your amortization, the stress test is no longer required. This could mean more lender options and flexibility for you.

In January 2025, homeowners with insured mortgages (initial down payment of less than 20%) will be able to refinance up to 90% of their home’s value to add a secondary suite or carriage home. This option allows homeowners to generate rental income and offset monthly expenses—a new pathway to financial flexibility.

 

3 Tips to Maximize Your Renewal:

  1. Start Early: Begin the process 4-6 months before your renewal. This gives you time to explore competitive rates and tailor your mortgage to your current goals. If rates drop before your renewal, most lenders will adjust your rate up to 10 days before funding.
  2. Reassess Your Financial Goals: Your priorities may have shifted since you first got your mortgage. Consider switching from fixed to variable (or vice versa), altering your term, or refinancing to manage home improvements, maintenance, or debt consolidation.
  3. Let Us Do the Shopping: Don’t limit yourself to your current lender’s renewal offer! As Mortgage Brokers, we partner with multiple lenders to find you the best rates and terms for your situation, saving you time and effort. We will help you determine if moving your mortgage is an option that is in your best interests.

We’re here to guide you through every step of your renewal. Feel free to reach out with any questions or to discuss your options with one of our brokers.  Our mortgage brokers can provide tailored advice and help you find the best options suited to your needs.

Call us at 250-753-2242

 

Locally owned and operated since 1985.

“The name friends recommend”

Want to get in touch? Send us an email:

Before you shop, read this

Mid-Island Mortgage & Savings Ltd. & the Christmas Angels…

Why Budget?

Everyone knows, the cost of living has increased.  Going to the grocery store, the gas pump, or a trip or to the movies all costs more. While there isn’t much that can be done about that in the short term, what is in everyone’s control?  Budgeting.  Work with what you have to help make your finances align with your goals.  You do not have to break the bank this Christmas.  Read through some of our budget tips on how to live within your means. 

Why is it important to set a budget? Spending can get out of control to the point where you may not even know where your money is going.  You may not have any savings plan in place.  Do you want to start saving for a down payment on a house, or to complete some renovations?  Maybe you’re noticing your credit card bills getting out of hand.  The Christmas season puts added pressure on bank accounts, but it doesn’t have to.  Now is the time to pay more attention to your bank account and spending habits.

By creating a budget you can save money, pay down debts, reduce your stress, have more control and have money to do the things that are truly important to you.  Who doesn’t want to live within their means?  

Budget Tips:

Create a Budget

The sooner you create a budget the sooner you can start improving your finances.  Look at your net monthly income, account for expenses are mandatory, and identify any leaks where money seems to be slipping away.  

Free Monthly Budget Tool 

Christmas spending limit

Do not go overboard with gift buying this year.  Get together with family to change how you do things, have a draw for family or friends so you only have to buy for one person.  Rather than an expensive gift exchange, make homemade gifts or do a whacky $10 gift exchange.  Don’t give into pressures of the season, it’s more important to be true to your values than to get the biggest best gift.  Remember what’s truly important to you when it comes to the holidays and focus on that.

Multiple Accounts

Have multiple bank accounts-ensuring that you have a designated spending account will act as your allowance for any discretionary items.  Allocating another account where payments come out on a regular basis means you can set it and forget it. Once you’ve determined how much is going out of that account each month, you know how much to put in and subsequently you can alleviate stress.  It goes without saying, one of these accounts needs to be for Christmas if you intend to spend money around the holidays.

Automatic Transfers

Set an amount that will transfer to your savings each payday.  This can be as low as $25 to get you started and in the habit of saving.  If you have a goal you are saving towards, work backwards. Figure out when you need the money, divide it by how many pay cheques you have until then, and set up your transfer for that amount.  Then when that trip to Mexico comes up, or your hot water tank goes, you’ll have the funds on hand. This will once again reduce stress. 

Emergency Savings

It’s said to have at least 3-6 months worth of expenses in a savings account. For those who aren’t already savers by nature, that can be a daunting number.  Especially when the cost of living has risen so significantly, and ‘extra’ money may seem like a pipe dream.  Start by saving $500 to $1000 as quickly as you can. This can sit in a savings account that is accessible, and can assist in a true emergency should it arise. This could help reduce anxiety if something comes up, and mean you won’t have to rely on credit as heavily.

Allowance 

Give yourself an allowance-really!  Once you have all your monthly expenses set, you know what you’ll be able to put into savings. Provide yourself an amount that can be used for your discretionary spending, could be going to the movies, dinner’s out, or grabbing a fancy coffee.  Don’t make your budget so strict that there isn’t any fun.

Getting Help

Creating a budget is a really great starting point– but getting the help of a professional is a good idea.  A mortgage professional can review your mortgage and other expenses to see if they can help you save money.  Don’t have a mortgage? They can also help get you on the path to home ownership by helping to determine what steps you need to take.    

 

Free Monthly Budget Tool

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l2NNg1PHKJwUROjhObANsiML09u8ZUUpDBHWA8FpK3c/edit#gid=0 

 

Subprime vs Traditional Lending

 

Coming from a traditional lending background, I’ve often thought of mortgage lending as a puzzle. In order to help the client, every single piece is necessary to get them what they need.  Credit has to be solid, the income both consistent and sufficient, the security (house) had to be in a good location in a decent condition.  All this is required. Without every piece in place, the puzzle just wont work!  The thing is–people’s lives can be complicated, messy even. Puzzle pieces go missing, and some don’t QUITE fit.  

Traditional Lending

Lets explain; Banks, Credit Union’s, and Monoline Lenders (companies regulated by the bank act who offer single products, in this case mortgages) all have to adhere to specific rules set by the Government.  Within those rules, the companies themselves can work with their board, risk management and shareholders to ensure that their best practices are within those rules.  They may decide to assume more risk in one area but less in another. Offering products or programs that target specific audiences. Acting within the letter of the law and their internal policies and practices.  For the most part, doing the same puzzle, with the same pieces.  

Subprime

Subprime, or “B” Lenders, do not have to adhere to the same rules as big banks.  Privately owned, operated and regulated they offer their own unique pieces to the puzzle.  These lenders offer assistance to borrowers who aren’t a fit for the major lenders, so credit issues, self-employment or lack of sufficient income fits for them.  They have more flexibility in how they lend and who they lend to. 

Of course, guidelines are still in place, they merely have more of a landing pad for the “unbankable”.  Anytime a lender is taking on higher risk mortgages, there is a premium for that, and with subprime lenders it translates to higher interest rates than other lenders, and sometimes lender fees.  It would be easy for a person to sit back and form opinions based on the idea that they are charging what they are. Some might say that the people seeking money from these companies “shouldn’t even be borrowing”.

Self Employed

For our self-employed clients, the general rule of thumb is that lenders want to see the last two year’s income tax returns (T1 Generals).  For a self-employed individual, this may not be the most current and accurate version of their finances.  Subprime lenders offer Business for Self programs such as stated income that require the last 6 months of business bank statements to support the cash flowing into the company.

Credit Issues

If you go bankrupt or file a consumer proposal you’ll generally be waiting 2 years from your date of discharge in order to be a candidate for a mortgage at a bank or Credit Union.  With subprime lenders, they consider you right away.  Their minimum credit requirements are significantly lower.  Many people may think that once their mortgage is placed with a Subprime lender that they’re going to be with them forever. This is not true.  Often clients will work with their Mortgage Broker to make a plan to make their way back to an A lender.  This could mean a variety of things. A hyper focus on paying bills on time, to earning additional income.  Whatever it may be, you won’t be alone, our Brokers will work with you to set a plan and will continue to check in to help keep you on track.

Stigma

There tends to be a real stigma out there about the Subprime lending world. In a situation where you may lose the house because of lack of income, an illness, a bad relationship or business venture that left you in a tough spot–There are options for you.  Of course the ideal lending situation is to be able to have a mortgage through a major bank, or monoline company. The interest rates will be less and there will be less fees.  No one is disputing that. 

However, in my decade and a half in the finance world to confidently say that there are many of us who “do not make the mark” set by banks.  I feel fortunate to be able to offer people solutions that fit their situation, to meet them where they are.  In many cases the solutions will help them maintain or improve their housing situation, and help their financial situation.

Being a mortgage underwriter at a traditional financial institution for many years, my experience with lending was limited to our own products and services. Helping people to have access to the Subprime lenders gives me the ability to help people work with what they have.  Putting their puzzles together in a way that works for them! 

I am grateful and appreciative of the opportunity to offer mortgage and financing solutions for our clients.  Interested in learning more, or have questions about your own ability to qualify for a mortgage please call or email us.  If you’re buying, renewing, refinancing we would be more than happy to help work with you to figure out your options.

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HOW SOME YOUNG PEOPLE CAN AFFORD A HOME

– HOW SOME YOUNG PEOPLE CAN AFFORD A HOME –

By: Edward Trapunski

We were recently very flattered to be invited to dinner by a young couple that we know. It was the first time that we visited their home and we were overwhelmed by how beautiful it is. Home for them and their two pre-schoolers is on an attractive street in one of the most desirable enclaves in the city.

He’s on leave from his job while he pursues more education so that he can better himself. She has a good job but, as yet, she has no security. It’s scary.

It’s very hard for young people to buy a house, according to what you read and hear. Still, here’s a young couple who own a beautiful five-bedroom, four-bathroom house near a ravine for which they paid $1.2 million. It’s not out of line for Toronto.

Here’s how they managed to do it:

The house they owned previously wasn’t in a nice neighborhood. It was a fixer-upper and they spent the money to have the work done. It was a good investment because they were able to sell their modest first house for considerably more than they bought it for. It helped that housing prices were escalating and the area they were leaving had yuppified.

So it was the first house that gave them the leverage. They had saved up for it. My young friend is a family guy and the prospect of a household full of children was a stronger motivator for him than travelling. He still enjoyed his good seats watching the Blue Jays but he came straight home right after the game. The nest egg my friend and his wife accumulated by being homebodies showed the lenders enough that they were responsible and had no problem shopping for a favorable mortgage.

For that first house they also took advantage of the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP). The Canadian government allows first-time home buyers to borrow up to $35,000 tax free from their RRSP. If you’re purchasing with someone who’s also a first-time homebuyer, you can both access the $35,000 for a total of $60,000. If you have a down payment of at least 20% of the purchase price of the home, the savings can be significant, and you won’t have to buy mortgage default insurance. Married couples and common-law partners both qualify. However, since the HBP is considered a loan, it must be repaid within 15 years at the rate of at least 1/15 of the loan every year.

My friends also accessed what is colloquially known as the Bank of Mom and Dad. They were lucky enough that both sides of the family were prepared to help them out with the down payment. This isn’t as rare as you think any more. In the 1960s, people usually lived until they were 65 or 70. When they passed away, they’d leave enough in their estate for their children—who were 30 or 35 years younger than them—to use to buy a house. Now that people are living longer, they’re giving their adult children the money while they’re still alive to help them get into the housing market.

Many parents these days are prepared to help their children settle down faster than they could do on their own. Also, with interest rates at such historically low levels, it makes sense to help your children take advantage of a situation that may never come again. Provided it doesn’t jeopardize their own finances or retirement plans, many parents feel a sense of personal satisfaction in making a difference in their adult children’s lives. They also want to ensure that they’ll see the rewards of having a stable life for their grandchildren before they’re gone.

My young friends began with a starter home, as I did. Now they plan to live in their lovely home for the rest of their lives — and they can — so they see it as an important investment for themselves and for their children. That’s why they’re glad they did it.

Have more mortgage questions or concerns? Call our office today at 250 753 2242 and we can help with all of your mortgage questions!

“LIKE” our Facebook page or “SHARE” this post to be entered into our quarterly draw for a $150.00 gift card!!!

Facebook: www.facebook.com/midislandmortgagenanaimo
We thrive off of your continued support and client referrals. Let us reward you for helping us get our name out into the community! Please mention who referred you or how you heard from us, when filling out your mortgage application. The name you give us will also be entered into the same draw for coming in to see us!

We are open Monday to Friday from 9 am to 5 pm. Kevin Decker can also be reached after hours at 250 619 2262 and Jason Barudin can be reached at 250 668 2203.

Lenders hike fixed rates yet again, bringing them closer to 4.5%

-Steve Huebl of Canadian Mortgage Trends-

 

Following a jump in bond yields last week, lenders across the country once again bumped up their fixed mortgage rates.

 

Big banks like RBC, TD and BMO hiked 5-year fixed rates by 20 to 25 basis points, with all three offering uninsured rates at 4.39%.

 

The move follows a nearly 10-bps jump in the Government of Canada 5-year bond yield, which leads 5-year fixed rates. The 5-year bond yield closed at an 11-year high of 2.88% on Friday. Since the beginning of the year, bond yields are up over 165 bps.

 

 

Among national lenders, the average uninsured 5-year fixed rate is now 4.37%, up from 3.92% a month ago, according to data tracked by Rob McLister, rate analyst and editor of Mortgage Logic. The average rate for an insured 5-year fixed mortgage, meaning that with a down payment of less than 20%, is now 4.14%, up from 3.78% a month ago.

 

That means fixed rates are now up roughly 40 bps in just the span of one month. For perspective, a 50-bps rate increase translates into a roughly $25 higher monthly payment per $100,000 of debt, based on a 25-year amortization.

 

While this doesn’t impact most borrowers with fixed rates, new borrowers and those renewing a mortgage are facing significantly higher rates compared to just several months ago, and potentially double for those renewing a mortgage.

 

As fixed rates march higher, variable rates are likely to jump again following the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision meeting on June 1, when it’s expected to hike interest rates another 50 bps. That could bring prime rate—the rate upon which variable rate mortgages and lines of credit are priced—up to 3.70%.

 

How rising rates will impact mortgage borrowers…

Aside from higher monthly payments, how will mortgage borrowers be impacted by these rising rates?

 

“As interest rates march higher—we expect the overnight rate to hit 2% by October, a projection that increasingly looks conservative—borrowing costs for Canadians will also rise, leaving the average Canadian household to spend almost $2,000 more in debt payments in 2023,” say economists from RBC Economics.

 

“This will erode spending power, especially for the lowest earning fifth of households which spend 22% of their after-tax income on debt servicing (including mortgage principal and interest payments),” they add.

 

On the other hand, RBC notes that the pandemic helped boost savings among Canadian households.

 

“The pandemic may have boosted debt, but it also left Canadian households sitting on $300 billion in savings,” the RBC economists wrote. “That’s a huge backstop—enough to cover about a year and a half of total Canadian household debt payments.”

 

How will rising rates impact home prices?

While the latest housing data showed home sales plummeting in April, house prices have so far held steady throughout most of the country outside of Ontario. In the Greater Toronto Area, average prices are so far down roughly 6%, but by as much as 22% depending on the housing type and specific region. Benchmark prices are often a lagging indicator, so further price declines are likely in the months ahead.

 

“…tomorrow’s homebuyers are going to have a much harder time paying today’s prices if they’re paying 5% on their mortgage compared to the low 2% range just a few months ago, and the high 1% range a year ago,” wrote real estate analyst John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty, in a recent post on move smartly.

 

Pasalis noted some have argued that this isn’t a concern, since many borrowers have been qualifying at a stress test rate of at least 5.25%, but he suggests that’s an oversimplification of the situation.

 

The mortgage stress test is currently used to qualify borrowers at the greater of the buyer’s actual mortgage rate plus 2% or the benchmark rate, which is currently 5.25%.

 

“As these are dynamic measures that will change as rates do, the stress test will also increase, which will reduce the amount of debt a buyer can take on,” Pasalis writes, adding that the contract rate influences how much mortgage debt the borrower is willing to take on.

 

“A buyer who qualifies for a $1M mortgage may be willing to take on that much debt when interest rates are 1.75%, but less so when rates are 4%, because under the higher rate their actual mortgage payment would be roughly $1,100 per month higher,” he wrote.

 

As a result, if interest rates continue to trend higher, Pasalis says he “would not be surprised if we see some downward pressure on home prices over the next 9 to 18 months due to homebuyers being unwilling or unable to pay today’s prices at tomorrow’s higher interest rates.”

 

Although, he adds that any price decline would “likely be a temporary one due to long-term fundamental factors that have been contributing to rising home prices in the Toronto area.”

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Supporting Ukraine…

Mortgage Professionals Canada | 2022

 

Mortgage Professionals Canada and the Mortgage Professionals Canada Foundation have partnered to raise and distribute humanitarian relief funds to Ukraine.

 

The MPC and MPC Foundation Boards of Directors have carefully selected two established charitable organizations for their outstanding efforts to provide much needed medicine, supplies, and shelter to vulnerable individuals coping with hardship in Ukraine.

 

With the urgency facing the people of Ukraine, we ask that mortgage professionals donate generously to this joint initiative to provide humanitarian relief through: The Canadian Red Cross, and Doctors Without Borders/ Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). Funds will be collected by the MPC Foundation and distributed evenly between these two very capable organizations, each of which will provide support directly to those most impacted.

 

Mortgage Professionals Canada has already donated $10,000 to support this initiative.

 

Please join us. Any amount helps. Click here to donate… https://mpcfoundation.ca/donate/ukraine/

 __________________________________________________________

Have more mortgage questions or concerns? Call our office today at 250 753 2242 and we can help with all of your mortgage questions!

 

“LIKE” our Facebook page or “SHARE” this post to be entered into our quarterly draw for a $150.00 gift card!!!

 

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We thrive off of your continued support and client referrals. Let us reward you for helping us get our name out into the community! Please mention who referred you or how you heard from us, when filling out your mortgage application. The name you give us will also be entered into the same draw for coming in to see us!

 

We are open Monday to Friday from 9 am to 5 pm. Kevin Decker can also be reached after hours at 250 619 2262 and Jason Barudin can be reached at 250 668 2203.

Many BC homeowners reportedly planning to leave province soon – CMP – REMAX

-Many BC homeowners reportedly planning to leave province soon-

Pandemic impacts and affordability concerns rank high among the reasons for moving out…

A significant share of British Columbian homeowners are planning to leave the province within the next five years, raising the possibility of even more supply entering the red-hot market during that period, according to RE/MAX.

Citing data from Insights West, RE/MAX said that 17% of the province’s homeowners are thinking of selling their home in the next two years, while 29% are considering doing so in the next five years.

Of those planning to sell their homes, 10% are considering downsizing, 11% want to relocate somewhere else in BC, and 9% are planning to move to another province altogether in search of more affordable housing.

“The relentless climb of real-estate prices in BC, and in Metro Vancouver in particular, has resulted in many homeowners weighing their options for cashing out,” said Steve Mossop, president of Insights West. “The option to downsize or move to a different location… in order to take advantage of the equity in their existing home has many weighing the alternatives.”

For 36% of BC’s homeowners, a major driver of the decision to move out was the financial impact of the pandemic. Affordability concerns ranked high on the list as well, with 72% of respondents saying that housing prices will likely continue rising over the next 12 months and lasting well into the next two to five years.

Anxiety surrounding “the likelihood of higher interest rates is also prevalent among BC residents,” RE/MAX said.

Low Rates Help Borrowers Pay Mortgage at Record Pace – Canadian Mortgage Trends

Home prices may be astronomical in certain parts of the country, but historically low mortgage rates are allowing borrowers to pay off their mortgages faster than ever.

At today’s average rates, 61% of a new homebuyer’s very first mortgage payment is going towards principal repayment, according to data from Edge Realty Analytics.

In the early 2000s, that percentage was 26.5%. The change is even more drastic when looking back at the 1990s, where just 11.9% of a homebuyer’s first payment went towards paying down the principal, or the 1980s, when that percentage was a minuscule 4.6%.

The result is a much faster build-up of equity over a short period of time, so long as interest rates remain low.

After the first five years of mortgage payments, today’s homebuyers borrowing at today’s prevailing rates will have paid back more than a fifth of their mortgage (16.5%). Here’s a look at how that compares to past decades:

 

Mortgage payments

(Courtesy: Edge Realty Analytics)

 

“Homeownership represents a very aggressive forced saving program,” Mortgage Professionals Canada noted in its annual consumer report.

“As a result (and even before we consider the impact of price growth) housing equity is built very rapidly,” the report noted. “This excellent ‘net affordability’ goes a long way to explaining why homebuying activity has remained strong in Canada and why a large majority of Canadians see homeownership as financially better than renting, despite the rapid run–up in house prices and the higher burden of mortgage (principal plus interest) payments.”

(Source: Mortgage Professionals Canada)

 

Not only have low interest rates allowed borrowers to repay their mortgages more quickly, but it’s also kept housing moderately “affordable” despite the 38.4% run-up in average home price in the past 12 months.

“If it were not for the extremely low interest rate, most cities in Canada, especially Toronto, Ottawa, Vancouver and Montreal, would be in overvalued territory,” Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud wrote in a recent analysis. “It means that the main driver for affordability is the record low level of interest rates.”

But Rates Won’t Stay Low Forever

All good things must come to an end, and that goes for ultra-low mortgage rates.

The Bank of Canada has made it abundantly clear that it expects to start raising interest rates by late next year.

How much rates will increase in the Bank’s next rate-hike cycle is anyone’s guess. But for what it’s worth, markets are pricing in at least eight 25-bps hikes over the next five years, which would bring Canada’s overnight rate to 2.25%, up two percentage points from its current record-low of 0.25%.

But even a more modest rise in rates of as little as 100-150 basis points could “push the valuation metrics into overvalued territory,” St-Arnaud noted, making today’s still somewhat “affordable” housing market patently unaffordable for most.

“Our simulations show that many cities in Canada will struggle with housing affordability as interest rates increase,” he added. “A 150-bps increase in mortgage rates could be enough to generate significant headwinds on some housing markets and house prices.”

Have more mortgage questions or concerns? Call our office today at 250 753 2242 and we can help with all of your mortgage questions!

 

“LIKE” our Facebook page or “SHARE” this post to be entered into our quarterly draw for a $150.00 gift card!!!

 

Facebook: www.facebook.com/midislandmortgagenanaimo

We thrive off of your continued support and client referrals. Let us reward you for helping us get our name out into the community! Please mention who referred you or how you heard from us, when filling out your mortgage application. The name you give us will also be entered into the same draw for coming in to see us!

 

We are open Monday to Friday from 9 am to 5 pm. Kevin Decker can also be reached after hours at 250 619 2262 and Jason Barudin can be reached at 250 668 2203.

CANADA’S HOUSING MARKET – 2021 FORECASTS – CANADIAN MORTGAGE TRENDS

CANADA’S HOUSING MARKET – 2021 FORECASTS – CANADIAN MORTGAGE TRENDS

The Canadian real estate market defied gravity last year in spite of a global pandemic and nationwide lockdowns.

The year ended with the seasonally adjusted MLS Home Price Index up 13% year-over-year and the average house price surpassing the $600,000 mark.

“It’s official, despite all the challenges, 2020 was a record year for Canadian resale housing activity,” Costa Poulopoulos, Chair of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), declared.

But where do prices go from here?

Will prices finally fall, as many have been predicting since early last year? Will they moderate and return to more sustainable growth, or is it still full-steam ahead?

Nobody knows for sure, of course. But we’ve compiled a rundown of some of the many (and varied) 2021 house price forecasts to get an idea of what some of the smart minds in the industry think.

We’ve also included some previous 2020 forecasts, where possible, to illustrate the fallibility of forecasting.

In case we need a reminder of how “off” forecasts can sometimes be, one need not look further than CMHC’s prediction of a 9% to 18% decline from pre-COVID prices by the end of 2020. That was a forecast that, at least so far, hasn’t aged well.

CREA

·         2021 forecast: +9.1%

·         2020 forecast: +6.2%

·         Commentary: “(We are) anticipating healthy housing price growth in 2021, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. An ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, presenting challenges for homebuyers and putting upward pressure on prices.”

CMHC

·         2021 forecast: -9% to -18% (pre-COVID peak-to-trough decline)

·         The agency first released this forecast last spring at the height of the first wave of the pandemic. While the timeframe has been been pushed out, CMHC continues to stand by this forecast.

·         2020 forecast: an average MLS Price of between $506,200 and $531,000

·         Commentary: “When I say I stand by our forecasts, it’s really with respect to what are the broad trends we expect moving forward,” CMHC Chief Economist Bob told reporters in September. “When I look at the housing market there are a tremendous number of risks.”

Real Estate Firms

Royal LePage

·         2021 forecast: +5.5%

·         2020 forecast: +3.2%

·         Commentary: “Across the country, a large number of hopeful buyers intent on improving their housing situation were not able to find the home they were looking for this year, as the inventory of properties for sale came nowhere near to meeting surging demand. With policy-makers all but promising record-low, industry-supportive interest rates to continue, we do not see this imbalance improving (this) year. The upward pressure on home prices will continue.”

RE/MAX

·         2021 forecast: +4% to 6%

·         2020 forecast: +3.7%

·         Commentary: “(We are) anticipating healthy housing price growth in 2021, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. An ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, presenting challenges for homebuyers and putting upward pressure on prices.”

The Banks

RBC

·         2021 forecast: +8.4%

·         Commentary: “We see little that will stop activity or prices from reaching new heights in the year ahead…Yet we also expect cooling signs to emerge, which will come into fuller display in 2022. The main restraining factors will be a lack of supply, waning pandemic-induced market churn, a modest creep-up in interest rates and an erosion of affordability. Call it a 2022 soft landing.”

TD

·         2021 forecast: +5.8%

·         TD is calling for an initial plunge in home prices of 7% in early 2021, before recovering in the latter part of the year to post an overall year-over-year price gain.

·         Commentary: “Canadian prices will likely drop through the first half of 2021 by around 7%, before regaining some traction later (in the) year. While this sounds like a big hit, it would still leave the upward trend in prices, established prior to the pandemic, in place. Some added pressure on prices could emerge on the supply side. Case in point, the end of mortgage deferral programs is likely to spark some additional supply on the market.”

CIBC

·         2021 forecast: +2.4%

·         This is based on an average of the bank’s upside case of an 11.2% price gain vs. its downside case of a 6.9% decline over the next 12 months.

National Bank of Canada

·         2021 forecast: -5.2%

·         This is based on an average of the bank’s upside case of a 1.5% price decline in 2021 vs. its downside case of a 9.9% decline.

·         Commentary: “We were pleasantly surprised by the performance and house prices so far during the pandemic. Although in our forecasts, particularly in the pessimistic case, we don’t assume strength in the housing market. I think for the macroeconomic scenarios, and that which goes into generating our allowances, you can consider those scenarios quite prudent.”

BMO

·         2021 forecast: +6.6%

·         This is based on an average of the bank’s quarterly MLS Home Price Index forecasts, ranging from +11.6% in Q1 to +0.5% by Q4.

·         Commentary: “We expect the market to lose some momentum in the months ahead, as tighter mobility restrictions, the small back-up in long-term yields, the ongoing absence of immigration, and still-soft employment conditions will weigh. To be clear, we don’t look for a reversal in the broader (housing) market, just some moderation from (December’s) extraordinary results. After all, ‘stay at home’ doesn’t translate to ‘don’t buy a home.’“

Scotiabank

·         2021 forecast: +0.4%

·         Commentary: “The delay of some activity into H2-2021, when we had already expected widespread inoculation to lift economic growth, likely means stronger second-half activity than we previously anticipated. Rock-bottom interest rates, ongoing federal and provincial fiscal supports, and the current supply-demand tightness should also contribute to home price gains over the medium-term.”

Credit Rating Agencies

Moody’s Analytics

·         2021 forecast: -7% (peak-to-trough decline)

·         Commentary: “The housing market will no longer be able to escape the poor condition of the labour market as vacancy and delinquency rates rise in 2021…Fortunately, the declines will be brief and the restoration of robust job growth in 2022 along with Canada’s strong demographics will put a floor under the housing market.”

Fitch Ratings

·         2021 forecast: -5%

·         Commentary: “We attribute the expected decline to lower demand caused by elevated levels of unemployment and increasing affordability issues…Although we expect delinquencies to increase in 2021, we do not expect the level of delinquencies, distressed sales or foreclosures to increase to the levels seen in the U.S. during the financial crisis.”

 

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